here is a major issue that everyone should plan for that will exacerbate the problems we’re all currently experiencing. The Chinese New Year is right around the corner. During Thanksgiving here in the U.S., 50 million Americans will migrate across the country for a weekend. For the Chinese New Year, 385 million workers will travel home for weeks. Most Chinese factories will close down for 2-4 weeks so if you think price and availability of raw ingredients are bad now, just you wait.
If you are an experienced importer you know what that means, start planning in August so your business in not disrupted in February. But this year, it’s a lot more difficult to plan because raw material availability is already stretched paper thin. So expect the worst and plan for it.
Maltodextrin: supply is extremely tight and the price is going up.
Dextrose: supply is non-existent, if you don’t have any now you won’t for a while.
Fructose: Almost as bad as dextrose. Price is up and supply is gone.
Flavors: Lead times are increasing drastically and price is on the rise. Maltodextrin is a major carrier for flavor systems so with supply of malto tight, flavors are following.
Citric and malic acid continue to be short with price double what it was last year.
Labels: paper is in short supply so labels price is on the rise. Expect and extra 2-3 weeks lead time.
Plastics: Lead times are still bad and price is getting worse for both imported and domestic bottles. I paid and extra $0.50 per 100mm cap this week just so I could keep product stocked for my customers. If you are using glass you are f*ck’d
I’ve been warning about citrulline for a while, well it looks like it’s hitting critical mass now as the price is drastically on the rise and supply is very spotty. Quotes coming in for October are 40-50% higher than current pricing which is already at a high.
Whey is getting worse and might continue this way through Q2. WPI contracts are $1.50 more per pound than last month and no one is quoting past December. That’s $75,000 more for a truckload than last month and $200,000 more than Q1. WPC is no better. It’s the wild west for whey protein. The problem with whey is fourfold: China continues to buy up U.S. whey to feed their pigs, cheese manufacturing is down so whey follows, freight is through the roof and packaging is headed towards an all-time high.
As sourcing whey protein becomes more difficult and the price continues to skyrocket, the cheaters will start popping up again. Protein spiking and diluting will no doubt be on the rise. But even the cheaters will have problem this time around as there is no dextrose or malto to dilute their protein with. Creatine is so expensive they can’t use it for amino spiking as are many aminos. Blend it down with cheaper WPC, not worth it, it’s not that much cheaper. Even the cheaters are having a tough time right now. But if you are a consumer buying protein at retail during these times, you should definitely be checking the protein ratio before purchasing. It’s getting harder to spike and dilute but cheaters will always fine away